Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

[Michael]

Originally Posted by dilettante

True, Cruz may be a "second worst", but I think there's a non trivial gap between him and Trump. His numbers are significantly better head to head with Clinton (though he still loses). More importantly, I suspect he'd get better turn out for down ballots. Enough GOP voters would likely prefer Cruz over Clinton enough to vote, and Cruz's supporters are committed conservatives who will vote GOP down the line. Trump is guarenteed not only to keep some conservative voters home, but also to push some into Clinton's camp just to stop him.* He might be able to get votes from some blue collar whites that usually vote Democrat, but they'll just be loyal to him and I doubt they'll support other Republicans on the ballot.

Cruz represents a Clinton whitehouse and maybe an endangered Senate.
Trump could lose the Whitehouse, the Senate, and maybe even the House for the Republicans.
Moreover, a Cruz loss to Cllinton would strengthen the GOP establishment for next time someone complains their choice isn't "conservative enough"; a Trump defeat would likely resolve nothing since his supporters aren't concerned about electability or substance.

*I don't claim to be typical, but if Trump is the GOP nominee, I personally (as a registered republican) will vote a straight Democrat ticket for national office, not only to weaken him if somehow we were to win but also to punish the party.

I agree that Cruz is the ideal candidate for nailing that old "we only lost because the R-candidate wasn't conservative enough" bullshit. But from a substantive policy & politics point of view, President Cruz and/or President Trump would be major disasters for America (different disasters in different ways, but both equally disasterous).

As for the House, it is so gerrymandered that even a huge Democrat sweep in November would only move maybe 15 seats to the Democrats and the Republicans would still retain control. The Democrats need to focus on winning state houses and governorships in order to muscle the redistricting process after the next census in order to potentially regain control of the House. Without that, they have zero chance.

The Senate is where the real action is. Trump on the ticket gives the Democrats a good opportunity to swing the Senate over. I haven't seen any data on Cruz's effect on the Senate races.

As for Trump vs Cruz, that's a loaded gun to the head of the Republican party (looks good on them!). I think both are losers in the general election and that's what I care most about.

[Donkey]

Scalia having the good graces to die will do more to influence the senate than the GOP nominee, I think.

[dilettante]

Sold off most of my shares in Cruz winning the GOP nomination. I figure he's finished his streak for a while and Trump is going to take NY and probably several others in the near future, which might make Cruz tick back down for a bit. Bought 'em for 0.22 and sold 'em for 0.35, so a nice rate of return there.

Reinvesting in Clinton taking NY. Shares are 0.85 each and will only pay off 1.00 if she wins, but it's still looking like a safe bet and an 17% rate of return in just 10 days is pretty good.

[Dominick]

Bernie to take NY : $0.15

That's a no brainer betting wise with polls as they are.

All my bets remain as they are by the way. Ain't playing that stock exchange crap.

[Dominick]

Dammit, I forgot to gloat.

Originally Posted by Dominick

So all I have is:

Republican nominee: Trump $0.45 -> $1.00
US President : Trump $0.19 -> $1.00

Did I mention I had a 14 to 1 real world, real money bet riding on this?

Sorry, Friedrich, but staring in the abyss long enough does pay off.