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  #11  
Old Mar 29th 2016, 05:57 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

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Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
Sounds fairly solid. All long term bets, I assume.
Yes, buy and hold. That's my standard stock market/investment strategy for all things. I'm not really into gambling.

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Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
I went ahead and put in $10 to play with. I'm trying for some shorter-term investments to see how it all works. Here's what I've got:

Clinton to win the Wisconsin primary, 15 shares at $0.32 (4.80 total)

Trump to LOSE the PA primary, 4 shares at $0.29 (4.00 total)

Cruz to win the GOP nomination, 20 shares at $0.20 (1.16 total)


I'm not actually expecting the last two to pay off in the end, but I'm guessing they'll go up in value in the short-term and I can sell them off. That's the plan, anyway. I really have no idea what I'm doing.
Sounds interesting.

Btw, wouldn't you have more than 4 shares of "Trump lose PA" at $0.29 each to total $4?
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  #12  
Old Mar 29th 2016, 06:24 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

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Yes, buy and hold. That's my standard stock market/investment strategy for all things. I'm not really into gambling.



Sounds interesting.

Btw, wouldn't you have more than 4 shares of "Trump lose PA" at $0.29 each to total $4?
Ah yes, those last two totals should be reversed.

I was up more than $0.30 earlier today. Untold wealth!
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  #13  
Old Apr 1st 2016, 09:32 AM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

This looked like a lot of fun but I can't do the real thing because 'credit card' and it's far too US-centric. The Europe options are pretty silly. Of course Merkel is 'going to last through 2016'. Only a konstruktives Misstrauensvotum could change that and that never happens.

So all I have is:

Republican nominee: Trump $0.45
US President : Trump $0.19
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  #14  
Old Apr 1st 2016, 01:16 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

Taking Hillary to win Wisconsin was clearly a mistake.
On the plus side, the "shares" in Cruz winning the GOP nomination have gone up by 50% since I got them. I hope to sell them off after he wins Wisconsin and before the focus shifts entirely to New York, where Trump will probably win.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dominick View Post
This looked like a lot of fun but I can't do the real thing because 'credit card' and it's far too US-centric. The Europe options are pretty silly. Of course Merkel is 'going to last through 2016'. Only a konstruktives Misstrauensvotum could change that and that never happens.
Yeah, it's very US-centric (especially for an organization based in New Zealand). I'd wondered if maybe you Europeans would actually be easy to make an easy profit since you'd probably be better informed about Euro politics than most of the [American] users buying and selling.

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So all I have is:

Republican nominee: Trump $0.45
US President : Trump $0.19
You really think he can pull that off?
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  #15  
Old Apr 1st 2016, 06:14 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

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Taking Hillary to win Wisconsin was clearly a mistake.
That's not surprising. Sanders tends to do very well in rural states that have relatively small populations and very few non-whites (especially if they use the 'caucus' format).

The problem for Sanders to win the primary is that there isn't enough of those type of states.
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  #16  
Old Apr 4th 2016, 10:13 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

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Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
Yeah, it's very US-centric (especially for an organization based in New Zealand). I'd wondered if maybe you Europeans would actually be easy to make an easy profit since you'd probably be better informed about Euro politics than most of the [American] users buying and selling.
Might it not be a US operation but based in NZ for legal reasons? You know: bad, bad gambling.
I doubt it. Most Europeans these days are eerily similar to Trump supporters.

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Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
You really think he can pull that off?
For betting that actually doesn't matter. You just play the numbers, you don't even have to know anything about the underlying issues.

Having said that, in this particular case, yes, I expect so. It's consistent with the Zeitgeist. It's what politics has devolved into.
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  #17  
Old Apr 5th 2016, 07:44 AM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

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Originally Posted by Dominick View Post
For betting that actually doesn't matter. You just play the numbers, you don't even have to know anything about the underlying issues.

Having said that, in this particular case, yes, I expect so. It's consistent with the Zeitgeist. It's what politics has devolved into.
Maybe, but I don't think we're quite that far gone yet. Assuming he loses Wisconsin today, Trump's ability to get the nomination will look increasingly questionable, and even if he does he faces record setting unpopularity nationally and a whole #NeverTrump movement from within his own party. In short, I don't think he has the numbers.
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  #18  
Old Apr 5th 2016, 10:04 AM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

He seems to have (potentially) peaked a couple of weeks too soon.
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  #19  
Old Apr 5th 2016, 06:11 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

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Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
Maybe, but I don't think we're quite that far gone yet. Assuming he loses Wisconsin today, Trump's ability to get the nomination will look increasingly questionable, and even if he does he faces record setting unpopularity nationally and a whole #NeverTrump movement from within his own party. In short, I don't think he has the numbers.
Is there any real difference between Trump and Cruz? Both are very weak general election candidates that are likely to both lose the election and likely to hurt the Republicans in down-ballot races.

I mean the only way the Republicans can prevent Trump from being on the ballot in November is if they replace him with Cruz. Any other option risks making the Republican party explode.
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  #20  
Old Apr 5th 2016, 06:55 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

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Is there any real difference between Trump and Cruz? Both are very weak general election candidates that are likely to both lose the election and likely to hurt the Republicans in down-ballot races.

I mean the only way the Republicans can prevent Trump from being on the ballot in November is if they replace him with Cruz. Any other option risks making the Republican party explode.
True, Cruz may be a "second worst", but I think there's a non trivial gap between him and Trump. His numbers are significantly better head to head with Clinton (though he still loses). More importantly, I suspect he'd get better turn out for down ballots. Enough GOP voters would likely prefer Cruz over Clinton enough to vote, and Cruz's supporters are committed conservatives who will vote GOP down the line. Trump is guarenteed not only to keep some conservative voters home, but also to push some into Clinton's camp just to stop him.* He might be able to get votes from some blue collar whites that usually vote Democrat, but they'll just be loyal to him and I doubt they'll support other Republicans on the ballot.

Cruz represents a Clinton whitehouse and maybe an endangered Senate.
Trump could lose the Whitehouse, the Senate, and maybe even the House for the Republicans.
Moreover, a Cruz loss to Cllinton would strengthen the GOP establishment for next time someone complains their choice isn't "conservative enough"; a Trump defeat would likely resolve nothing since his supporters aren't concerned about electability or substance.

*I don't claim to be typical, but if Trump is the GOP nominee, I personally (as a registered republican) will vote a straight Democrat ticket for national office, not only to weaken him if somehow we were to win but also to punish the party.
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