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  #1  
Old Mar 28th 2016, 06:10 AM
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Default Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

Who's up a game that combines politics, online trading, and losing money? I know I am!

I stumbled across PredictIt.org this morning and thought it might make an interesting game for the forum. Essentially you're making wagers about the outcome of political events (Who will be the GOP nominee? Will Britain exit the Eurozone? etc). But rather than just making a bet and waiting to see what happens, you're more or less buying a "share" in the outcome, which you can then sell later, before the event even happens, if you want.

E.G. At the moment, you can buy a "share" of Trump becoming president for $0.28. If/when that comes to pass, the share will be worth $1.00. But, if it becomes more likely to happen and more people want to buy those shares, the price will rise. If it goes up to $0.50 a share in April, you could sell it then and make $0.22 profit. Prices are set by the demand of all site users, so the $0.28 on Trump becoming president represents someone out there willing to sell a share at that price.

Anyway, I propose a forum game to see who can make the most profit (or least loss) on the prediction market. We could either each get an actual account and compare notes along the way, or just allocate each participant a certain amount of imaginary dollars and each report how we would have distributed them based on current prices. The first option limits the amounts we could play with (I couldn't contribute more than about $10 atm); whereas using imaginary money, while letting us play with larger and more flexible sums, means we'd have to do more of the math ourselves.

Anyone interested?
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Old Mar 28th 2016, 10:57 AM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

I'm not a betting man, but my money stays on Clinton because the house always wins and she's the house.
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Old Mar 28th 2016, 02:36 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey View Post
I'm not a betting man, but my money stays on Clinton because the house always wins and she's the house.
I think she'll win, but I'm not so sure about the general rule. Among the various candidates (on both sides) was Obama really "the house" in 2008? Surely Clinton (even then) or Dean or McCain would have been the house candidate.
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Old Mar 28th 2016, 05:41 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

Well once Obama was the nominee he was the house. No way a Republican was going to win after Bush.

But I'll concede that the house doesn't ALWAYS win, but it damn near almost always does.
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Old Mar 28th 2016, 06:06 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

Quote:
Originally Posted by dilettante View Post
Anyway, I propose a forum game to see who can make the most profit (or least loss) on the prediction market. We could either each get an actual account and compare notes along the way, or just allocate each participant a certain amount of imaginary dollars and each report how we would have distributed them based on current prices. The first option limits the amounts we could play with (I couldn't contribute more than about $10 atm); whereas using imaginary money, while letting us play with larger and more flexible sums, means we'd have to do more of the math ourselves.

Anyone interested?
Sure, why not?
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Old Mar 28th 2016, 06:10 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

I'll take Clinton to win the D-primary for $0.85

I'll take Trump to win the R-primary for $0.64

I'll take Clinton to win the General election for $0.60

That's a grand total of $2.09
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  #7  
Old Mar 28th 2016, 06:14 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael View Post
I'll take Clinton to win the D-primary for $0.85

I'll take Trump to win the R-primary for $0.64

I'll take Clinton to win the General election for $0.60

That's a grand total of $2.09
USD or Canada?
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  #8  
Old Mar 28th 2016, 06:27 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey View Post
USD or Canada?
I presume that's USD for a US site, but in this case, it is pretend money.

Betting on elections would be illegal in Canada.
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  #9  
Old Mar 28th 2016, 09:58 PM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael View Post
I presume that's USD for a US site, but in this case, it is pretend money.

Betting on elections would be illegal in Canada.
Hehe.

We used to do throw away bets with our cousins in Toronto. They were slightly older and more wily so they would always insist that the bets be in USD.
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  #10  
Old Mar 29th 2016, 08:46 AM
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Default Re: Forum Contest: Betting on elections...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael View Post
I'll take Clinton to win the D-primary for $0.85

I'll take Trump to win the R-primary for $0.64

I'll take Clinton to win the General election for $0.60

That's a grand total of $2.09
Sounds fairly solid. All long term bets, I assume.

I went ahead and put in $10 to play with. I'm trying for some shorter-term investments to see how it all works. Here's what I've got:

Clinton to win the Wisconsin primary, 15 shares at $0.32 (4.80 total)

Trump to LOSE the PA primary, 4 shares at $0.29 (4.00 total)

Cruz to win the GOP nomination, 20 shares at $0.20 (1.16 total)


I'm not actually expecting the last two to pay off in the end, but I'm guessing they'll go up in value in the short-term and I can sell them off. That's the plan, anyway. I really have no idea what I'm doing.
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