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Old Aug 15th 2013, 07:03 PM
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Michael Michael is offline
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Default Re: Murder rate falling in South America

Originally Posted by Dominick View Post
Are you aware that this whole topic originates back to a single person's crusade (Rick Nevin)? There are no academic studies on the subject anywhere to be found. That neither confirms or denies the validity of the claims. It just makes it impossible to ascertain that.
Its a fair bit wider circle and it is increasing rather quickly these days as more and more people become aware of it.

And yes, I'm perfectly aware that the origin of this theory is not from science.

I'm also aware that correlation does not equal causation. I'm also aware that sociologists as well as police chiefs and criminologists are fanatically opposed to the very idea that crime might fall for some reason that isn't in their own self-serving theories and they are working very hard to marginalize this theory.

That being said, the fact of the matter is that historical records show a huge rise in violent crime starting in the 1960's (USA), peaking the 1980's and then falling steadily throughout the 2000's. No one has been able to offer any plausible explanation of this phenomena that makes any kind of sense or fits the data - except the lead theory.

Now we are getting the exact same data coming out of South America that supports exactly the same theory. That is to say, only the 'lead-theory' fits ALL the facts.
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