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Old Aug 24th 2011, 11:31 AM
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drgoodtrips drgoodtrips is offline
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Default Re: Climate Scientist Scott Denning....

Originally Posted by andrewl View Post
Dilettante/Dr. Goodtrips,

If global warming is real it is necessarily superimposed on top of natural variability. In essence this means that in a world where every square meter of the surface has warmed up by a few W/M2 and there is ~4% more water vapor in the atmosphere you cannot point at any climatic event or feature and say this is climate change and this is not climate change. The entire globe has warmed so everything that is happening in the atmosphere/oceans and on the surface is effected to some degree or another by global warming. I.e., El Nino is a naturally recurring weather pattern, the job of a climate scientist at present is to figure out what impact global warming will have on this recurring pattern now and in the future as global warming accelerates.
I'd say the problem is in the delivery of the message. I understand the complexity of causality in the climate. In terms of the mathematical, the climate is a chaotic system. So, I understand that saying "we used a lot of CO2 spewing cars, and it caused X to happen" is difficult to impossible, to say nothing of proving that.

But, in light of that, I'd say that those raising awareness of the issue and trying to do something about it should back off the predictions and focus instead on what we're observing only. I don't know whether that would lend credibility or not, but it would at least stop the hemorrhaging of credibility.
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